Payrolls reset the tape; yields and dollar repriced higher early before risk closed mixed and conviction stayed selective.
Signal Stream
Auction demand held the long end in check; desks de-risked into payrolls while volatility stayed contained.
Mixed data kept markets in balance; rates chopped intraday, equities drifted firmer, and volume stayed light.
Dollar drifted softer and credit stayed orderly; risk held gains with no sign of broad stress.
Week-one momentum built as cyclicals led; yields held range and a softer dollar supported risk sentiment.
February opens with a steady risk bid; Asia firmer, rates calm, and the dollar flat keep liquidity stable ahead of data.
Month-end flows cleared and risk steadied; crypto quiet, volatility cooled, and the dollar held flat into February.
Core PCE cooled, yields slipped, the dollar softened, and month-end rebalancing revived the risk bid.
Post-Fed digestion kept risk heavy; dollar firm, yields elevated, and credit spreads wider with volatility still bid.
Fed held but sounded hawkish; front-end yields spiked, the dollar rallied, and rotation snapped back to defensives.
Pre-Fed holding pattern; liquidity thin, dollar steady, yields flat, and volatility muted.
Auction demand pulled yields lower; dollar softened and risk held steady into the Fed with liquidity calm.
Futures stabilized before Fed week; volatility eased, dollar quiet, and risk appetite steadied.
Weekend risk-off tone lingered; crypto soft, volatility elevated, and defensives held the bid.
Cautious tech guidance hit growth; yields fell, volatility jumped, and rotation tilted toward value.
Soft PMIs cooled yields; the dollar eased while defensives caught a bid and commodities held steady.
Bank earnings beat; curve steepened, credit spreads tightened, and rotation favored financials.
Soft China data pressured commodities; dollar firmed, yields slipped, and risk appetite cooled.
MLK holiday thinned liquidity; dollar steady, rates quiet, and energy nudged higher on supply chatter.
Quiet Sunday; futures flat, rates stable, and volatility low ahead of the holiday reopen.
Weekend drift kept risk paused; crypto softer, liquidity thin, and volatility muted.
Opex swings lifted volatility but closed flat; dollar firm, yields steady, and rotation unresolved.
Retail sales strong; yields up, dollar bid, and rotation leaned toward cyclicals and value.
PPI mixed; yields steady, dollar calm, and risk consolidated after CPI.
Cool CPI hit yields and the dollar; risk-on flows sparked a broad rotation into growth.
Value held the upper hand as yields stayed elevated; dollar firm and rotation away from duration continued.
CPI week setup kept liquidity thin; volatility compressed and the dollar steady.
Weekend crypto rebound steadied sentiment, but thin liquidity kept signals noisy.
Payrolls beat with cooler wages; front-end yields rose, dollar firmer, and rotation favored banks over growth.
Claims ticked higher; markets paused with steady liquidity and a flat dollar into payrolls.