What Happened

  • Year-end FX fixing flows caused brief spikes in major pairs.
  • Equities finished flat as desks closed books and avoided new risk.
  • Funding markets were calm, with front-end rates little changed.
  • Oil slipped on de-risking into year-end.

What It Means

  • Fixing volatility is mechanical and rarely a lasting signal.
  • Calm funding conditions reduce the chance of an abrupt January shock.
  • Thin liquidity still leaves markets vulnerable to gaps next week.

What I Think

  • I expect the real move to emerge in the first week of January.
  • If the dollar stays heavy, rotation into commodities continues.
  • I prefer to keep powder dry for the reopening week.

Market Terms

  • FX fixing - A daily benchmark rate used for index and corporate flows.
  • De-risking - Reducing exposure to lock in gains or limit drawdowns.
  • Funding calm - Stable short-term rates and easy access to liquidity.