Published December 30, 2025
MarketsRatesEquitiesCredit
Window Dressing Meets Rate Drift
What Happened
- Mega-cap equities saw late buying tied to window-dressing activity.
- A solid Treasury auction briefly lifted yields before they settled back.
- Credit spreads stayed tight and volatility remained muted.
- The dollar stabilized after recent softness.
What It Means
- Window dressing can mask underlying rotation, so the signal is weak.
- Rate moves are shallow because liquidity is still thin.
- Tight credit spreads show risk appetite remains intact into year-end.
What I Think
- I am cautious about chasing late-year equity strength driven by optics.
- If yields drift higher in early January, high-duration trades will reprice fast.
- Staying balanced feels right until the first real data hits.
Market Terms
- Window dressing - Buying to make portfolios look better at reporting dates.
- Auction tail - A bond auction clearing at a higher yield than expected.
- Credit spread - The yield premium for credit risk over Treasuries.