What Happened

  • US equities extended their opening-week gains with small caps leading.
  • Fed speakers pushed back on rapid easing expectations, lifting front-end yields.
  • The dollar firmed against the yen while high beta FX lagged.
  • Energy held gains as crude stayed bid.

What It Means

  • Growth optimism is alive, but the Fed is trying to cool the pace of cuts.
  • Rising front-end yields favor banks and value over long-duration tech.
  • A firmer dollar could temper the commodity bid if it persists.

What I Think

  • I like the breadth of the rally but want to see it survive higher yields.
  • If the dollar keeps firming, I will trim commodity exposure.
  • This is still a flows-driven week until payrolls.

Market Terms

  • Front-end repricing - Short-term yields moving on policy expectations.
  • Small-cap leadership - Outperformance from smaller, more cyclical stocks.
  • Policy pushback - Central bank messaging aimed at tempering market bets.