What Happened

  • Equities were flat with low intraday ranges.
  • Rates and FX were steady as the market awaited the Fed.
  • Oil was unchanged and credit spreads were stable.

What It Means

  • The market is positioned for minimal surprises, which can amplify any shock.
  • Low volatility signals a temporary truce rather than a new regime.
  • Fed messaging will determine the next leg.

What I Think

  • I am keeping exposure tight into the decision.
  • A hawkish tilt would hit growth and long duration first.
  • If the Fed is neutral, I expect a relief bid.

Market Terms

  • Holding pattern - Markets moving sideways ahead of an event.
  • Event risk - Potential for sharp moves around major announcements.
  • Relief bid - Buying that follows a less hawkish outcome.