What Happened

  • Flash PMIs eased, hinting at slower momentum in early Q1.
  • Treasury yields slipped and the dollar softened on the data.
  • Equities were mixed with defensives bid and cyclicals softer.
  • Oil edged higher on supply-related headlines.

What It Means

  • Cooling PMIs reduce immediate inflation pressure but raise growth questions.
  • Lower yields give relief to duration-heavy sectors.
  • Mixed sector performance shows uncertainty about the growth path.

What I Think

  • I expect a choppy tape as earnings and data conflict.
  • If PMIs keep sliding, defensives will lead.
  • Energy remains a useful hedge given supply risks.

Market Terms

  • PMI - Purchasing managers index, a gauge of business activity.
  • Defensive bid - Investor preference for stable, low-beta sectors.
  • Supply headline - News about production that can move commodities.