What Happened

  • Payrolls data drove early cross-asset volatility before markets settled.
  • Treasury yields and the dollar moved in the same direction as rate expectations reset.
  • Equities closed mixed, with defensives outperforming cyclicals late.

What It Means

  • Labor data remains the key hinge for near-term Fed path expectations.
  • Rate sensitivity is still high, especially for long-duration growth names.
  • Mixed equity breadth suggests investors want confirmation before adding risk.

What I Think

  • Today felt more like a recalibration than a trend reversal.
  • I expect positioning to remain tactical until next week’s inflation data.
  • The cleaner setup is to react to confirmation rather than chase first-move volatility.

Market Terms

  • Cross-asset volatility - Simultaneous price swings across stocks, bonds, FX, and commodities.
  • Rate sensitivity - The degree to which an asset responds to interest-rate changes.
  • Breadth - The share of securities participating in a market move.