What Happened

  • Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations while wage growth moderated.
  • Front-end Treasury yields climbed and the curve flattened.
  • The dollar firmed as rate expectations pushed out.
  • Equities were mixed with banks up and growth stocks lagging.

What It Means

  • Strong jobs with cooler wages keep the soft-landing narrative intact.
  • Higher short-end yields favor financials and value over long-duration growth.
  • The dollar’s bid can cap commodity upside in the near term.

What I Think

  • This is a clean print that supports rotation rather than panic.
  • I expect rate volatility to stay elevated through CPI week.
  • Staying diversified across value and defensives feels right.

Market Terms

  • NFP - The monthly US employment report outside agriculture.
  • Wage moderation - Slower pay growth that eases inflation pressure.
  • Curve flattening - The spread between long and short yields narrows.