What Happened

  • Options expiration sparked intraday volatility in equities and rates.
  • The major indices finished little changed for the day and the week.
  • Treasury yields were steady after the retail sales spike.
  • The dollar held recent gains.

What It Means

  • Opex can amplify moves, but it rarely changes the underlying trend.
  • Stability in yields suggests markets are waiting for earnings to guide next moves.
  • A firm dollar keeps global risk conditions slightly tighter.

What I Think

  • I expect volatility to stay elevated as earnings ramp.
  • Range trading is likely until the next major macro surprise.
  • I am keeping risk balanced across value and defensives.

Market Terms

  • Opex - Options expiration that can intensify short-term moves.
  • Gamma effects - Dealer hedging flows that influence price action.
  • Range trade - Markets moving within a defined band.