What Happened

  • The first full session of the year saw broad equity gains led by cyclicals.
  • ISM manufacturing returned to expansion, boosting growth expectations.
  • Treasury yields rose modestly while the dollar slipped on risk-on flows.
  • Oil pushed higher on improved demand expectations.

What It Means

  • Early-year inflows can create a strong start, but they need data follow-through.
  • Rising yields signal growth optimism, not yet a policy scare.
  • A softer dollar keeps commodities supported into the reopening week.

What I Think

  • I like the risk tone but want confirmation from next week’s labor data.
  • If yields keep rising, expect leadership to rotate toward banks and value.
  • For now, the reopening bid looks real.

Market Terms

  • Reopening bid - Fresh flows that hit markets at the start of a new period.
  • Cyclical leadership - Outperformance from sectors tied to growth.
  • Risk-on flows - Capital moving into higher beta assets.