Published January 1, 2026
MarketsMacroCryptoVolatility
New Year Holiday, Thin Signals
What Happened
- Most global cash markets were closed for the New Year holiday.
- Futures traded lightly with minimal range and little conviction.
- Crypto markets were steady, offering the only real price discovery.
What It Means
- Holiday closures limit price discovery and make signals unreliable.
- Any move today is more about positioning than fresh information.
- Real direction should emerge on the first full trading day.
What I Think
- I am treating today as a reset, not a trend signal.
- January liquidity will decide whether the rotation stays intact.
- The first data prints will matter more than holiday price action.
Market Terms
- Holiday closure - A session where major cash markets are shut.
- Price discovery - Markets finding a level through active trading.
- Liquidity vacuum - Thin participation that can distort price moves.