What Happened

  • US cash markets were closed for the MLK Day holiday.
  • European trading was quiet with limited risk participation.
  • The dollar and Treasury futures were steady in thin trade.
  • Oil edged higher on minor supply chatter.

What It Means

  • Holiday conditions limit signal value and can mask real positioning.
  • Commodity moves on low volume are rarely durable.
  • True direction should return with Tuesday’s reopen.

What I Think

  • I am waiting for earnings headlines before adjusting risk.
  • If energy keeps grinding higher, it will support the rotation narrative.
  • Otherwise, this is just a quiet pause.

Market Terms

  • Holiday closure - A day when major cash markets are shut.
  • Thin trade - Low volume sessions with limited liquidity.
  • Supply chatter - Unconfirmed news that can move commodities.