finance reference

Finance Glossary

Search terms quickly across every finance category.

commodities

Basis risk
Risk that the spread between a hedged asset and its hedge moves unexpectedly.
Example: Producers faced basis risk when local crude discounts widened versus benchmarks.
Calendar spread
Price difference between futures of the same commodity with different maturities.
Example: Traders watched the WTI calendar spread to gauge how tight prompt barrels were.
Commodity sensitivity
How growth data affects commodity prices.
Example: Soft China data pressured commodities and nudged US yields lower.
Contango
Futures prices above spot, often reflecting storage and financing costs.
Example: A deep contango in crude signaled ample supply and weak near-term demand.
Real Assets
Physical or commodity-linked assets that hedge inflation risk.
Example: Real assets like energy and infrastructure drew inflows during the rotation.
Real-asset bid
Investor preference for commodities and tangible assets.
Example: Portfolio rebalancing pushed value higher as yields dipped and the dollar softened.
Demand signal
Fresh evidence on consumption or inventories that shifts commodity pricing.
Example: Oil stayed range-bound as traders waited for clearer demand signals.

credit

AT1 wipeout
Subordinated bondholders taking zero in the deal structure.
Example: The AT1 wipeout rattled the broader bank capital stack.
Capital-spread repricing
AT1 markets widening as hierarchy fears grow.
Example: AT1 desks saw capital-spread repricing within hours of the deal.
CDS
Credit default swap; insurance-like contract against default.
Example: CDS levels spiked as investors hedged bank exposure.
Credit quality
The health of loan books and default risk.
Example: Bank results beat expectations, lifting financials and steepening the curve.
Credit widening
Spreads rising on weaker risk appetite.
Example: Markets digested the hawkish hold with weaker equities and wider credit spreads.
Fallen angel
Bond downgraded from investment grade to high yield.
Example: A wave of fallen angels pressured IG ETFs with forced selling.
Prime broker risk controls
Scrutiny of margin and concentration limits.
Example: Prime broker risk controls tightened across desks after the blow-up.
Regional contagion risk
Stress spreading to peer bank stocks.
Example: Regional contagion risk spread to peer bank stocks.
Shotgun bank merger
UBS absorbing Credit Suisse under regulator pressure.
Example: Regulators choreographed a shotgun bank merger over one weekend.
Sovereign downgrade to AA+
Fitch citing debt standoffs and rising burdens.
Example: The sovereign downgrade to AA+ revived questions about fiscal anchors.
Spread widening
Credit yields rise relative to Treasuries, indicating higher perceived risk.
Example: Spread widening hit CCC bonds first as risk-off took hold.
Total-return swap leverage
Synthetic exposure that masked position size.
Example: Total-return swap leverage hid Archegos’s concentration until margin calls hit.

energy

Backwardation
Spot above futures, signaling tight prompt supply.
Example: Brent backwardation steepened as inventories fell.
Core PCE
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy.
Example: Cooler inflation data and month-end flows pulled yields lower and lifted equities.
Crack spread
Refining margin between crude input and fuel outputs.
Example: A wider crack spread boosted refiners despite flat crude.
Gas-to-oil switching
Power generators shift from gas to oil when gas prices spike.
Example: Gas-to-oil switching raised distillate demand during the cold snap.
Inventory-driven oil slip
Crude easing on stock builds even without new fund shorts.
Example: Crude’s inventory-driven oil slip lacked follow-through from funds.
Oil above $100
Crude spiking on invasion-driven supply fears.
Example: Oil above $100 underscored the invasion’s supply shock.
OPEC+ slow-walk supply
Gradual output hikes despite a tight market.
Example: OPEC+ chose to slow-walk supply increases despite $80+ crude.
Strategic reserve talk
Governments weighing releases to cap prices.
Example: Strategic reserve talk resurfaced as prices squeezed consumers.
Supply chatter
Unconfirmed news that can move commodities.
Example: US cash markets were closed, leaving global trade subdued.
Supply headline
News about production that can move commodities.
Example: Softer PMIs trimmed yields while equities digested mixed growth signals.
Supply-shock oil bid
Drone strikes tightening near-term crude availability.
Example: A supply-shock oil bid followed the refinery strikes.
Underinvestment squeeze
Thin spare capacity keeping prices jumpy into winter.
Example: An underinvestment squeeze left little spare capacity for winter.

equities

ADP payrolls
A private-sector employment estimate released ahead of NFP.
Example: A firm private payrolls print kept yields elevated and equities cautious.
Breadth
The number of stocks participating in a move.
Example: A cooler CPI print hit yields and ignited a broad equity rally.
Cyclical leadership
Outperformance from sectors tied to growth.
Example: Fresh inflows lifted equities as manufacturing data and oil prices pointed higher.
Defensive bid
Investor preference for stable, low-beta sectors.
Example: Softer PMIs trimmed yields while equities digested mixed growth signals.
Defensive posture
Preference for lower-risk exposures.
Example: Crypto softened and futures sagged slightly after a tech-led selloff.
Defensive rotation trigger
Hot data could send flows back into safe assets.
Example: A hot payrolls print could be the defensive rotation trigger.
Earnings breadth
How many sectors participate in earnings strength.
Example: Bank results beat expectations, lifting financials and steepening the curve.
ECM thaw watch
Success boosting hopes for Instacart and Klaviyo.
Example: Bankers kept ECM thaw watch as more IPOs queued up.
ETF purchase halt
Ending equity-buying support alongside normalization.
Example: Ending ETF purchases signaled a quieter BOJ footprint in equities.
Factor rotation
Flows shift between style factors like growth, value, momentum, and quality.
Example: A pivot to value signaled a factor rotation out of crowded growth names.
Family office transparency
Calls for clearer disclosure of private leverage.
Example: Regulators renewed family office transparency pushes post-Archegos.
Fee war kickoff
Issuers slashing costs to win early assets.
Example: Issuers launched a fee war kickoff to grab ETF market share.
First-day 25% pop
Debut rally as investors test risk appetite.
Example: The first-day 25% pop emboldened other tech issuers.
Flow distortion
Price moves amplified by technical positioning.
Example: Markets paused after a volatile week as month-end positioning settled.
Forced block unwinds
Banks dumping concentrated media and tech stakes.
Example: Forced block unwinds hammered media and tech stocks in a day.
Futures-to-spot rotation
Investors shifting from futures products and trusts.
Example: Futures-to-spot rotation hit volumes in existing trusts.
Growth leadership
Market direction led by high-growth sectors.
Example: Cautious tech guidance weighed on equities as Treasuries caught a bid.
High beta
Stocks that move more than the market, amplifying upside and downside.
Example: High-beta tech lagged when rates jumped and risk appetite cooled.
Leadership breadth
How broadly market leadership extends across sectors and factors.
Example: Leadership breadth stayed narrow as defensives outperformed cyclicals late.
Market Breadth Divergence
Index gains driven by a narrowing subset of constituents.
Example: Market breadth divergence left most stocks red even as the index held flat.
Multiple expansion
Stock prices rise faster than earnings, lifting valuation multiples.
Example: AI enthusiasm drove multiple expansion even as profits leveled off.
Policy event
A central bank decision that can move markets.
Example: A steadier futures open hinted at stabilization before the Fed decision.
Policy pushback
Central bank messaging aimed at tempering market bets.
Example: Equities climbed while Fed commentary tempered hopes for fast cuts.
Policy shock
A market move driven by central bank messaging.
Example: Markets digested the hawkish hold with weaker equities and wider credit spreads.
Range-Bound
Trading within a tight band without a clear trend.
Example: The index stayed range-bound ahead of payrolls.
Rate-sensitive valuations
Long-end yields influencing tech multiples.
Example: Rate-sensitive valuations could cool if long yields climb again.
Rotation
A shift of capital between sectors as risk appetite changes.
Example: Rotation into energy and defensives drained momentum from tech.
Sector rotation to energy
Flows leaving megacap tech for real-asset plays.
Example: Sector rotation to energy stole flows from megacap tech.
Services surprise
Data print above consensus for the services sector.
Example: A strong services print lifted yields and pushed leadership toward banks and cyclicals.
Small-cap leadership
Outperformance from smaller, more cyclical stocks.
Example: Equities climbed while Fed commentary tempered hopes for fast cuts.
Spot ETF approval
SEC greenlighting exchange-traded bitcoin funds.
Example: Spot ETF approval drew mainstream flows into bitcoin overnight.
Structural Rotation
A durable shift in market leadership driven by fundamentals rather than short-term flows.
Example: A structural rotation pulled capital out of megacap tech and into energy and defense.
Top-of-range pricing
IPO set at $51 valuing Arm above $54B.
Example: Top-of-range pricing signaled strong demand for Arm shares.
Value tilt
Portfolio bias toward cheaper, cash-generating stocks.
Example: Higher yields kept money flowing into value while growth remained under pressure.
Vol-Control Strategies
Systematic funds that cut equity exposure as realized volatility rises.
Example: Vol-control strategies dialed back risk despite a quiet VIX.
Wage moderation
Slower pay growth that eases inflation pressure.
Example: A strong jobs report with softer wages lifted yields and split equity leadership.
Wage sensitivity
Market focus on pay growth as an inflation signal.
Example: Jobless claims ticked higher as markets held steady into payrolls.

fx

Carry trade
Borrow low-yielding currency to fund longs in higher-yielders.
Example: JPY-funded carry trades unwind fast when volatility spikes.
Dollar bid
Greenback strengthening on hawkish repricing.
Example: A dollar bid followed the upside inflation surprise.
Dollar smile
USD strengthens in stress and strong U.S. growth; weakens in stable global expansions.
Example: The dollar smile explains why USD rallied during risk-off despite soft U.S. data.
Dollar Strength
A rising U.S. dollar that pressures gold and EM assets.
Example: Dollar strength hit EM FX and capped gold as haven flows built.
Dollar Weakness
A decline in USD value that boosts commodities and EM assets.
Example: Dollar weakness boosted commodities and EM funding conditions.
EM FX
Emerging market currencies.
Example: Higher yields kept money flowing into value while growth remained under pressure.
EM tightening
Pressure on emerging markets from a stronger dollar.
Example: Soft China data pressured commodities and nudged US yields lower.
Financial conditions
The combined effect of rates, credit, and FX on the economy.
Example: The Fed held rates but signaled patience, lifting yields and the dollar.
Flow-driven dollar bid
USD strength fueled by liquidity flows more than macro shifts.
Example: A flow-driven dollar bid persisted even without new macro catalysts.
FX fixing
A daily benchmark rate used for index and corporate flows.
Example: Fixing flows stirred FX while equities closed flat into the new year.
Haven Demand
Safe-haven buying that lifts the dollar when risk assets wobble.
Example: A spike in haven demand pushed the Dollar Index higher as equities hesitated.
Mild dollar softness
USD easing slightly amid cautious positioning.
Example: Mild dollar softness reflected cautious positioning rather than conviction.
Safe-haven bid
Flow into perceived stable currencies when risk assets sell off.
Example: A safe-haven bid lifted USD and CHF when equities slid.
Softer USD tailwind
A weaker dollar amplifying commodity strength globally.
Example: A softer USD tailwind amplified commodity gains.
Sterling slide
Currency punished alongside the gilt selloff.
Example: The sterling slide mirrored the gilt selloff after the budget.
Yen firming drift
Currency strengthening as rate differentials narrow.
Example: A yen firming drift followed narrowing rate differentials.

geopolitics

Risk premium
Extra return investors demand to hold assets exposed to geopolitical shocks.
Example: Oil carried a higher risk premium after tensions escalated.
Risk-off
Investor shift toward safety and away from high beta assets.
Example: Crypto softened and futures sagged slightly after a tech-led selloff.
Sanctions premium
Pricing risk of restricted Russian commodities and banks.
Example: Traders added a sanctions premium to Russian-linked commodities.
Sanctions risk
Possibility that trade or financial restrictions disrupt assets or flows.
Example: Sanctions risk widened spreads on companies linked to the conflict.
Supply-chain reroute
Shifting trade routes to avoid conflict zones or restricted regions.
Example: A supply-chain reroute through alternate ports raised shipping costs.

liquidity

Bank run spiral
Tens of billions in deposits fleeing in a day.
Example: A bank run spiral emptied SVB’s deposits in a day.
Bid-ask spread
Gap between buy and sell quotes; widens when liquidity thins.
Example: The bid-ask spread blew out after the data release.
Flow-driven tape
Price action dominated by positioning rather than new data.
Example: Thin reopening trade kept the dollar soft while energy and value led a quiet risk bid.
Hedging Flow
Capital moving into protective assets during uncertainty.
Example: Hedging flow into gold and defense stocks stayed steady as macro risks built.
Holiday liquidity drift
Markets moving in a narrow band into year-end.
Example: Prices meandered in a holiday liquidity drift into year-end.
Holiday reopen
The first full session after a market closure, often with thin liquidity.
Example: Thin reopening trade kept the dollar soft while energy and value led a quiet risk bid.
Holiday week
Sessions with reduced participation and liquidity.
Example: Crypto eased and futures were quiet as markets paused after a busy data week.
LDI collateral squeeze
Pension hedges strained by 100 bp yield spikes.
Example: LDI collateral squeeze forced pension funds to dump assets.
Liquidity Air Pocket
Thin order-book stretch where prices gap quickly.
Example: The selloff hit a liquidity air pocket and skipped bids.
Liquidity backstop wall
SNB providing over CHF 100B to steady funding.
Example: A liquidity backstop wall from the SNB aimed to stop outflows.
Liquidity rebound
A bounce driven by thin trading rather than fundamentals.
Example: Crypto steadied after the payrolls week while broader markets stayed quiet.
Liquidity Vacuum
Periods when thin participation can produce outsized moves.
Example: With US cash markets closed, futures and global risk stayed subdued as desks focused on year-end positioning.
Market depth
Volume available at quoted prices without moving the market.
Example: Thin depth made it easy for small orders to move futures prices.
Positioning light
Low exposure that can magnify reactions.
Example: Futures were steady as traders waited for a packed economic calendar.
Positioning signal
Price moves driven by existing exposure rather than new news.
Example: A soft futures open and steady FX underscored the lack of conviction into Monday.
Range trade
Markets moving within a defined band.
Example: Options expiration stirred intraday swings but left the week essentially unchanged.
Rebalancing flows
Portfolio adjustments that can move markets around month-end.
Example: A soft futures open and steady FX underscored the lack of conviction into Monday.
Reopening bid
Fresh flows that hit markets at the start of a new period.
Example: Fresh inflows lifted equities as manufacturing data and oil prices pointed higher.
Risk-on flows
Capital moving into higher beta assets.
Example: Fresh inflows lifted equities as manufacturing data and oil prices pointed higher.
Slippage
Execution price deviates from the intended price due to market impact.
Example: Large orders in illiquid names faced heavy slippage.
Thin trade
Low volume sessions with limited liquidity.
Example: US cash markets were closed, leaving global trade subdued.
Weekend drift
Slow price changes in thin trading conditions.
Example: Crypto eased and futures were quiet as markets paused after a busy data week.
Weekend gap risk
Potential for jumps when liquidity returns.
Example: Crypto retraced part of Friday's gains as liquidity thinned again.
Weekend signal
Low-liquidity moves that need confirmation.
Example: Crypto softened and futures sagged slightly after a tech-led selloff.
Window dressing
Buying to make portfolios look better at reporting dates.
Example: Mega-cap buying met a modest rate bounce as dealers managed year-end books.
Year-End Positioning
Adjustments made for reporting or risk limits rather than new views.
Example: With US cash markets closed, futures and global risk stayed subdued as desks focused on year-end positioning.

macro

6.2% headline shock
Inflation at a three-decade high.
Example: The 6.2% headline shock jolted rate expectations.
Ballast
Holdings used to steady a portfolio during volatility.
Example: Energy acted as ballast when tech wobbled.
Constructive tone
A market mood that is positive but cautious.
Example: Futures firmed as Asia traded higher and focus turned to the next data cycle.
Conviction
Strength of investor commitment to a direction.
Example: Futures firmed as Asia traded higher and focus turned to the next data cycle.
Consensus print
An economic release that lands close to market expectations.
Example: A consensus print would likely keep rates range-bound and risk supported.
Core services
Inflation in services excluding housing, a Fed focus.
Example: A cooler CPI print hit yields and ignited a broad equity rally.
CPI
Consumer price index, a key inflation gauge.
Example: Futures were calm as traders braced for the CPI print and earnings kick-off.
Data cycle
The sequence of key economic releases in a given period.
Example: Futures firmed as Asia traded higher and focus turned to the next data cycle.
Data dependence
Policy guidance tied to incoming economic data.
Example: The Fed held rates but signaled patience, lifting yields and the dollar.
Data-dependent
Markets waiting on incoming economic releases.
Example: Futures were steady as traders waited for a packed economic calendar.
Data-pause positioning
Markets idling ahead of the jobs report before taking direction.
Example: Desks kept risk light in data-pause positioning ahead of payrolls.
Data-watch posture
Traders waiting for December prints before taking risk.
Example: Funds stayed in a data-watch posture waiting for December prints.
De-risking
Reducing exposure to lock in gains or limit drawdowns.
Example: Fixing flows stirred FX while equities closed flat into the new year.
Diffusion index
Survey metric where readings above 50 show expansion and below 50 show contraction.
Example: The PMI diffusion index slipped below 50, hinting at slower manufacturing.
Disinflation signal
Slower shelter and goods prices pulling CPI below forecasts.
Example: The softer shelter print was a disinflation signal that let the 10-year dip.
Earnings catalyst
Company results that can shift market direction.
Example: Futures were calm as traders braced for the CPI print and earnings kick-off.
Energy-driven inflation
Higher fuel costs complicating central bank tightening.
Example: Energy-driven inflation complicated central bank tightening plans.
Event risk
Potential for sharp moves around major announcements.
Example: Markets stayed flat as traders waited for the Fed decision.
Futures Indication
Pricing from derivatives that offers a hint, not a full signal.
Example: With US cash markets closed, futures and global risk stayed subdued as desks focused on year-end positioning.
Growth-cooling rationale
Slower activity used to justify easing.
Example: Officials cited a growth-cooling rationale for moving ahead of the Fed.
Guidance risk
Earnings outlook that can shift valuations.
Example: Futures were steady ahead of the US holiday as traders looked to earnings.
Holding pattern
Markets moving sideways ahead of an event.
Example: Markets stayed flat as traders waited for the Fed decision.
Holiday Closure
A session where major cash markets are closed, reducing price discovery.
Example: With US cash markets closed, futures and global risk stayed subdued as desks focused on year-end positioning.
Holiday pause
Trading conditions with reduced participation.
Example: Futures were steady ahead of the US holiday as traders looked to earnings.
Inventory build
Rising stockpiles that can pressure prices.
Example: A mixed producer inflation print kept markets balanced after the CPI rally.
Jobless claims
Weekly filings for unemployment benefits.
Example: Jobless claims ticked higher as markets held steady into payrolls.
Macro Anchor
Real assets (energy, commodities, infrastructure) that stabilize portfolios during policy or geopolitical uncertainty.
Example: Energy and infrastructure served as a macro anchor while central-bank messaging whipsawed risk assets.
Macro calendar
The schedule of key economic releases.
Example: Crypto steadied after the payrolls week while broader markets stayed quiet.
Mean reversion
Price action snapping back after a sharp move.
Example: Crypto retraced part of Friday's gains as liquidity thinned again.
Melt-Up vs Controlled Reset
A two-path market dynamic that oscillates between euphoric rally and orderly correction.
Example: Positioning flipped from a melt-up vs controlled reset as each data print hit tape.
Month-end rebalance
Portfolio adjustments at the end of the month.
Example: Cooler inflation data and month-end flows pulled yields lower and lifted equities.
Month-to-Date Lows
Lowest level seen so far in the current month.
Example: DXY slipped to month-to-date lows after the CPI miss.
NFP
The monthly US employment report outside agriculture.
Example: A strong jobs report with softer wages lifted yields and split equity leadership.
Output gap
Difference between actual GDP and potential GDP.
Example: A closing output gap reduced slack and kept wage pressures elevated.
PMI
Purchasing managers index, a gauge of business activity.
Example: Softer PMIs trimmed yields while equities digested mixed growth signals.
PPI
Producer price index, measuring inflation at the wholesale level.
Example: A mixed producer inflation print kept markets balanced after the CPI rally.
Pre-NFP pause
Markets holding steady ahead of the payrolls report.
Example: Jobless claims ticked higher as markets held steady into payrolls.
Price discovery
Markets finding a level through active trading.
Example: Global cash markets were closed, leaving only light futures and crypto activity.
Pricing power
Ability to raise prices without losing demand.
Example: Hot retail sales lifted yields and pushed leadership back to cyclicals.
Relief bid
Buying that follows a less hawkish outcome.
Example: Markets stayed flat as traders waited for the Fed decision.
Recalibration
A reset in market expectations after a key data release.
Example: Payrolls sparked a recalibration in Fed-path pricing rather than a trend reversal.
Repricing
Markets adjusting expectations after new information.
Example: A steadier futures open hinted at stabilization before the Fed decision.
Retail sales
Monthly measure of consumer spending.
Example: Hot retail sales lifted yields and pushed leadership back to cyclicals.
Risk barometer
An asset used to gauge overall sentiment.
Example: Crypto retraced part of Friday's gains as liquidity thinned again.
Risk neutral
A market tone without strong directional bias.
Example: Crypto steadied after the payrolls week while broader markets stayed quiet.
Risk rally reaction
Equities jumping and the dollar weakening on the tone.
Example: Stocks staged a risk rally reaction to the speech.
Sentiment check
Short-term price action used to gauge mood.
Example: Crypto eased and futures were quiet as markets paused after a busy data week.
Sentiment probe
Short-term price action used as a mood check rather than a signal.
Example: With cash markets shut, crypto and futures were the only real risk signals.
Services inflation watch
Council focused on wage and service pressures.
Example: Services inflation watch stayed front and center for the ECB.
Soft landing
Inflation cools without a sharp rise in unemployment or a recession.
Example: Markets priced a soft landing after growth held up while inflation eased.
Stabilization
Markets settling after a volatile period.
Example: Markets paused after a volatile week as month-end positioning settled.
Sunday open
The first futures trading session of the week.
Example: Futures were steady as traders waited for a packed economic calendar.
Two-way trade
Markets moving up and down without a clear trend.
Example: Hot retail sales lifted yields and pushed leadership back to cyclicals.
Unfunded mini-budget
Tax cuts without offsets jolting gilt markets.
Example: The unfunded mini-budget torched gilt confidence in hours.
Year-end rebalance
Shifting allocations to meet target weights or reporting needs.
Example: Portfolio rebalancing pushed value higher as yields dipped and the dollar softened.

options

Crypto beta
Crypto acting as a high-volatility proxy for risk sentiment.
Example: With cash markets shut, crypto and futures were the only real risk signals.
Dealer Gamma
Net option position of dealers that can dampen or amplify price moves.
Example: Positive dealer gamma helped pin the index into the close.
Gamma effects
Dealer hedging flows that influence price action.
Example: Options expiration stirred intraday swings but left the week essentially unchanged.
Gamma squeeze
Dealer hedging on short calls forces buying, driving the underlying up.
Example: A gamma squeeze in a popular meme stock sparked a sharp intraday rally.
Opex
Options expiration that can intensify short-term moves.
Example: Options expiration stirred intraday swings but left the week essentially unchanged.
Skew
Relative pricing of out-of-the-money puts versus calls.
Example: Steeper skew showed stronger demand for downside protection.
Speech-driven volatility
Markets parsing language for pause timing.
Example: Speech-driven volatility spiked around each line of the Q&A.
Vega bleed
Loss in option value as implied volatility drifts lower over time.
Example: Long premium trades suffered vega bleed after the event passed quietly.
Volatility compression
Options pricing that reflects low expected swings.
Example: Futures were calm as traders braced for the CPI print and earnings kick-off.
Volatility uptick
Rising expected price swings.
Example: Cautious tech guidance weighed on equities as Treasuries caught a bid.
Volatility whipsaws
Price swings as inflows meet profit-taking.
Example: Volatility whipsaws followed each headline in the first trading sessions.

rates

2024 cut path
Futures already penciling in next-year easing despite hawkish optionality.
Example: The curve still sketched a 2024 cut path despite Fed optionality.
5% yield milestone
The 10-year briefly topping a 16-year high.
Example: The 5% yield milestone spooked duration buyers in October.
5.25–5.50% terminal band
Policy rate after July’s 25 bp move.
Example: Markets treated 5.25–5.50% as the likely terminal band after the July hike.
Accelerated taper risk
Pressure on the Fed to speed asset-purchase runoff.
Example: Accelerated taper risk crept into discussions after the CPI print.
Auction strength
High demand that lowers yields.
Example: Strong demand at the 2-year auction pulled yields lower ahead of the Fed.
Auction tail
A bond auction clearing at a higher yield than expected.
Example: Mega-cap buying met a modest rate bounce as dealers managed year-end books.
Auction takedown watch
Monitoring demand quality as term premia drift.
Example: Traders put auction takedown watch front and center for the week.
Bear steepening
Yields rise, with long rates rising faster than short rates.
Example: A strong services print lifted yields and pushed leadership toward banks and cyclicals.
Bill-issuance surge
Heavier Treasury supply hitting the market post-ceiling.
Example: Dealers braced for a bill-issuance surge after the debt ceiling deal.
BoE rescue buying
Temporary purchases to stabilize long-end yields.
Example: BoE rescue buying steadied the long end temporarily.
Breakevens
Market-implied inflation expectations from TIPS.
Example: Higher yields kept money flowing into value while growth remained under pressure.
Bull flattening
Long yields fall faster than short yields, flattening the curve.
Example: Portfolio rebalancing pushed value higher as yields dipped and the dollar softened.
Bull steepener
Long-end yields fall faster than the front end, steepening the curve in a rally.
Example: Soft data triggered a bull steepener as 10s rallied harder than 2s.
Credit spread
The yield premium for credit risk over Treasuries.
Example: Mega-cap buying met a modest rate bounce as dealers managed year-end books.
Curve flattening
Front-end repricing faster than long yields on growth worries.
Example: Curve flattening showed investors doubted the growth runway.
Curve inversion
Short-term yields exceed long-term yields, often seen as a recession warning.
Example: A deeper curve inversion signaled markets expect cuts after a policy peak.
Curve steepening
Long yields rising relative to short yields.
Example: Bank results beat expectations, lifting financials and steepening the curve.
Curve-flattening recession tell
Growth fears showing up as long yields lag.
Example: The curve-flattening recession tell flashed as growth fears mounted.
Cut pricing pull-forward
Futures moving 2024 easing expectations closer.
Example: Fed funds futures showed cut pricing pull-forward into mid-2024.
Data-dependent stance
Fed willing to hike again only if inflation progress stalls.
Example: Powell repeated a data-dependent stance before deciding on another move.
Dot-plot jump to 3.4%
Year-end rate projections reset sharply higher.
Example: The dot-plot jump to 3.4% reset year-end rate expectations overnight.
Downshift to 50 bps
Ending the string of 75 bp hikes.
Example: December’s downshift to 50 bps marked the end of jumbo moves.
Duration bid
Strong demand for longer-dated bonds.
Example: Strong demand at the 2-year auction pulled yields lower ahead of the Fed.
Duration compression
Valuation pressure on assets sensitive to rates.
Example: A strong services print lifted yields and pushed leadership toward banks and cyclicals.
Duration mismatch losses
Long-dated Treasuries eroding capital as rates rose.
Example: Duration mismatch losses eroded capital as rates climbed.
Duration risk
Sensitivity of asset prices to changes in yields.
Example: A firm private payrolls print kept yields elevated and equities cautious.
Duration demand
Investor appetite for longer-maturity bonds at prevailing yields.
Example: Solid auction demand showed duration demand was still present into payrolls.
Earlier liftoff pricing
Futures pulling 2022 hikes forward.
Example: Earlier liftoff pricing showed up across futures curves.
Fed path repricing
Markets yanking near-term hikes after the failure.
Example: Futures showed Fed path repricing with hikes quickly priced out.
Fed pushback
Guidance aimed at cooling rate-cut expectations.
Example: A mixed producer inflation print kept markets balanced after the CPI rally.
First cut to 3.75%
ECB trimming the deposit rate after its hike cycle.
Example: The first cut to 3.75% opened a cautious easing path.
Front-end hawkish pricing
Markets still baking in aggressive summer hikes.
Example: Front-end hawkish pricing held even as stocks bounced.
Front-end repricing
Short-term yields moving on policy expectations.
Example: Equities climbed while Fed commentary tempered hopes for fast cuts.
Front-end shock
Short-term yields moving sharply on policy news.
Example: The Fed held rates but signaled patience, lifting yields and the dollar.
Funding calm
Stable short-term rates and easy access to liquidity.
Example: Fixing flows stirred FX while equities closed flat into the new year.
Half-point liftoff
First 50 bp hike since 2000 to tackle inflation.
Example: The half-point liftoff set the tone for a faster hiking cadence.
Higher-for-longer message
Emphasis that inflation is still too high.
Example: Powell’s higher-for-longer message faded the initial rally.
Long-end whiplash risk
Bond desks bracing for yield spikes if payrolls surprise.
Example: Bond desks warned of long-end whiplash risk if wages surprised.
Long-end yield retreat
Cooling PMIs pulling Treasury yields lower.
Example: Soft PMIs triggered a long-end yield retreat.
Measured path signal
Markets pricing gradual follow-on cuts.
Example: Guidance delivered a measured path signal rather than a rush to ease.
Mortgage-rate squeeze
Elevated yields pushing housing costs toward multi-decade highs.
Example: The mortgage-rate squeeze pushed housing affordability to new lows.
Negative-rate exit
BOJ lifting the overnight rate to 0–0.1%.
Example: The negative-rate exit closed a decade-long experiment in Japan.
No-75-for-now relief
Powell’s pushback that briefly calmed risk assets.
Example: Equities rallied on the no-75-for-now relief in May’s presser.
Optionality on quarters
Keeping flexibility for more 25 bp moves.
Example: Optionality on quarters let the Fed keep tightening without shocking credit.
Peak-rate narrative
Markets betting the hiking cycle is effectively done after this print.
Example: Traders leaned into the peak-rate narrative after the cooler CPI.
Positive real rates
Policy settings now above inflation, tightening conditions.
Example: Positive real rates signaled restrictive policy even without further hikes.
QT countdown
Balance-sheet reduction flagged as the next tightening step.
Example: Markets started a QT countdown once balance-sheet runoff was flagged.
QT runoff caps
Balance-sheet roll-off starting at $47.5B then stepping to $95B.
Example: Investors parsed QT runoff caps to gauge how fast liquidity would drain.
Quarter-point liftoff
First hike since 2018 ending the zero-rate era.
Example: Quarter-point liftoff finally ended the pandemic zero-rate era.
Rate volatility
Implied swings in interest rates.
Example: A steadier futures open hinted at stabilization before the Fed decision.
Rate sensitivity
How strongly an asset moves when interest-rate expectations change.
Example: Growth names underperformed as rate sensitivity rose after payrolls.
Real yields
Nominal yields adjusted for inflation expectations.
Example: Cooler inflation data and month-end flows pulled yields lower and lifted equities.
Real-yield relief
Softer inflation easing pressure on risk assets via lower real rates.
Example: Lower breakevens delivered real-yield relief for equities.
Risk-free premium questioned
Symbolic hit to the U.S. credit halo.
Example: Investors briefly had the risk-free premium questioned after the cut.
Safe-haven rally
Treasuries bid as equities sell off.
Example: A safe-haven rally pulled Treasury yields lower intraday.
Seven-hike dot path
Median outlook mapping six more moves in 2022.
Example: The seven-hike dot path mapped a brisk 2022 tightening run.
Slower-pace hint
Powell flagging smaller moves ahead.
Example: Powell’s slower-pace hint teed up a 50 bp move in December.
Sprint toward neutral
Markets pricing a faster path to regain policy credibility.
Example: Futures priced a sprint toward neutral after the June meeting.
Supersized 75 bp catch-up
The Fed’s leap after the hot May CPI print.
Example: The supersized 75 bp catch-up was a scramble to restore credibility.
Supply overhang
Heavy Treasury issuance pressuring long-end yields.
Example: A looming supply overhang kept Treasury auctions under pressure.
Term premium
Extra yield investors demand to hold long-duration bonds over rolling short rates.
Example: Rising term premium pushed the 10-year higher even without new hikes priced.
Term Premium Rebuild
The gradual return of extra compensation required for holding long-dated bonds under uncertainty.
Example: A term premium rebuild nudged 10-year yields higher even without new hikes priced.
Term-premium rebuild
Extra compensation rising with fiscal and duration risk.
Example: Supply jitters fueled a term-premium rebuild at the long end.
Terminal dot at 5.1%
Higher peak projected for 2023.
Example: The terminal dot at 5.1% surprised a market pricing a lower peak.
Terminal higher caveat
Warning that rates may still end up above prior peaks.
Example: He paired it with a terminal higher caveat to avoid a dovish read.
Treasury Firmness
Steady long-end yields signaling investors are bracing for data risk rather than crisis.
Example: Treasury firmness into payrolls showed desks hedging for uneven data, not panic.
Weekend liquidity
Reduced participation that can exaggerate price swings.
Example: With cash markets shut, crypto and futures were the only real risk signals.
YCC retirement
Scrapping the hard cap on JGB yields while keeping flexibility.
Example: YCC retirement lifted caps on long JGB yields.