What Happened
- Asian equities opened the month higher, lifting global futures modestly.
- Rates and FX were steady ahead of the coming week’s data releases.
- Oil was unchanged as traders awaited fresh demand signals.
What It Means
- The new month starts with a constructive tone but limited conviction.
- Upcoming ISM and payrolls will set the near-term direction.
- Stable rates suggest markets are willing to give the Fed message time to settle.
What I Think
- I am looking for confirmation that January’s rebound can carry.
- If data re-accelerates, risk assets will need to reprice quickly.
- For now, the tape looks steady rather than aggressive.
Market Terms
- Data cycle - The sequence of key economic releases in a given period.
- Constructive tone - A market mood that is positive but cautious.
- Conviction - Strength of investor commitment to a direction.