CPI Week Set-Up

What Happened

• Futures and rates were steady into a CPI-heavy week.
• Volatility stayed muted as traders avoided big bets ahead of data.
• Oil held recent gains with no new supply headlines.

What It Means

• Low volatility suggests markets are waiting for CPI to set direction.
• Positioning is light, which can amplify the reaction to any surprise.
• Earnings season adds another catalyst alongside inflation data.

What I Think

• I am focused on CPI core components more than the headline.
• A softer print would reopen the risk rally quickly.
• If CPI is hot, expect a sharp dollar bid and equity pullback.

Market Terms

• CPI - Consumer price index, a key inflation gauge.
• Volatility compression - Options pricing that reflects low expected swings.
• Earnings catalyst - Company results that can shift market direction.