What Happened

  • Weekly jobless claims edged higher, but not enough to change the labor narrative.
  • Equities and rates traded in tight ranges ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
  • The dollar was flat while oil rebounded from a small dip.

What It Means

  • Markets are firmly in wait-and-see mode until NFP hits.
  • Stable rates suggest positioning is balanced rather than stretched.
  • A steady dollar keeps broader risk conditions supportive.

What I Think

  • I am keeping risk small into the print and avoiding crowded trades.
  • A surprise in wages will matter more than the headline jobs number.
  • Energy remains a steady hedge if growth data comes in hot.

Market Terms

  • Jobless claims - Weekly filings for unemployment benefits.
  • Pre-NFP pause - Markets holding steady ahead of the payrolls report.
  • Wage sensitivity - Market focus on pay growth as an inflation signal.