What Happened
- Weekly jobless claims edged higher, but not enough to change the labor narrative.
- Equities and rates traded in tight ranges ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
- The dollar was flat while oil rebounded from a small dip.
What It Means
- Markets are firmly in wait-and-see mode until NFP hits.
- Stable rates suggest positioning is balanced rather than stretched.
- A steady dollar keeps broader risk conditions supportive.
What I Think
- I am keeping risk small into the print and avoiding crowded trades.
- A surprise in wages will matter more than the headline jobs number.
- Energy remains a steady hedge if growth data comes in hot.
Market Terms
- Jobless claims - Weekly filings for unemployment benefits.
- Pre-NFP pause - Markets holding steady ahead of the payrolls report.
- Wage sensitivity - Market focus on pay growth as an inflation signal.